Water and Energy – The story of Water in the Middle East - A review by Webintelligency
- webintelligency
- Dec 11, 2025
- 6 min read
Motivation
Water security in the Middle East has become one of the defining strategic challenges of the 21st century, with direct implications for economics, food security, energy systems, and geopolitical stability. This review, prepared by Webintelligency – a strategic consulting & competitive research services vendor – examines recent trends in water supply and demand across the region, focusing on rainfall and snow, desalination and treated wastewater, and the growing pressures of agricultural, municipal, and industrial demand.1
Structural water scarcity - the starting point
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is home to about 6% of the world’s population but less than 2% of global renewable freshwater resources, making it the driest region in the world. Average internal renewable water resources in Arab countries are about 512 m³ per person per year, compared with roughly 7,243 m³ per person worldwide, and in 15 of 22 Arab states this figure falls below 500 m³ per person per year, far under the classic 1,000 m³ “water scarcity” threshold. Recent assessments show that 18 of 22 Arab states are already below 1,000 m³ per capita per year, and 13 are below 500 m³, approaching or crossing the “absolute water scarcity” line.2
At the regional level, World Bank groupings indicate that renewable internal freshwater resources for “Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan” are now around 430–460 m³ per capita per year (2022 data) - a fraction of the roughly 7,000 m³ per capita annual average in other world regions. Climate projections suggest that by 2050, two - thirds of MENA countries could have less than 200 m³ of renewable water resources per person per year, essentially a structural crisis rather than a temporary shortage.3
Natural supply - rainfall and snow in decline
Average annual rainfall in the Arab region is about 250 mm, but this number hides vast spatial extremes: large areas receive less than 5 mm per year, effectively hyper - arid deserts with negligible renewable recharge. Much of the region’s surface water comes from a small set of transboundary rivers (Nile, Tigris–Euphrates, Jordan), whose flows are increasingly stressed by upstream withdrawals and climate variability.4
Climate change is already altering precipitation patterns:
The region is experiencing more frequent and intense droughts, with multi - year rainfall deficits in countries like Iraq, Syria, Iran and Jordan.5
Snowpack in mountain “water towers” (e.g., Turkey and Iran) is under pressure, reducing the reliability of spring and summer flows into downstream basins.6
Because baseline natural supply is so low, small percentage reductions in rainfall can translate into very large percentage reductions in effective surface and groundwater recharge, exacerbating the gap between supply and demand.7
Non-conventional supply - desalination, wastewater reuse and brackish water
To close that gap, Middle Eastern countries have become global leaders in non - conventional water resources: desalination and treated wastewater.
Desalination capacity
The MENA region accounts for a disproportionately large share of global desalination: earlier regional studies estimated that Arab countries alone held more than 3.4 billion m³ per year of desalination capacity, with GCC states responsible for about 78% of that capacity. Newer regional overviews show that MENA produces around 41.4 million m³ of desalinated water per day, roughly 39% of global desalination capacity, with the top five countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait among the largest producers worldwide.8
This implies annual desalinated output on the order of 15 billion m³ per year if plants operate close to full capacity, making desalination the single largest growing source of additional water supply in the region. However, it comes with energy and environmental costs:9
Brine discharges are considerable - for example, Saudi Arabia discharges about 1.5 million m³ of brine per day, UAE about 1.4 million m³, Kuwait about 0.25 million m³, and Israel around 0.2 million m³, all concentrated along environmentally sensitive coasts.10
This drives interest in coupling desalination with renewable energy, especially solar, to limit the water - energy - carbon trade - off.11
Wastewater treatment and reuse
Treated wastewater is increasingly recognized as a strategic “new source” of water:
In the MENA region, approximately 82% of wastewater is still neither treated nor reused, highlighting a large untapped potential.12
Arab region assessments show that agriculture consumes about 85% of available water resources, while water reuse and desalination are the primary options for supply augmentation in the face of climate - induced scarcity.13
Country - level examples underline the scale of change under way:
Saudi Arabia operates around 70 wastewater treatment plants, with an increasing share of effluent reused for agriculture, landscaping, and industrial purposes.14
Regional analyses emphasize that, if adequately treated and regulated, wastewater reuse can significantly reduce water deficits, especially when integrated into national water master plans.15
In short, while reuse currently contributes a modest fraction of total regional supply, it is one of the few scalable levers that can both augment quantity and reduce pollution loads.16
Demand - agriculture, cities and energy
Agriculture as the dominant water user
Across the Arab world and the broader Middle East, agriculture accounts for roughly 80–85% of total water withdrawals, leaving only 15–20% for municipal and industrial uses. One regional assessment estimates that agriculture uses about 224 km³ of water per year, with around 60% of that coming directly from precipitation (i.e., “green water” in rainfed systems).17
Yet irrigation efficiency is often low: in many systems, up to three times the water required by crops is applied, due to outdated flood irrigation, poor maintenance and weak incentives to conserve. At the same time, agriculture’s economic contribution is modest - around 13% of MENA’s GDP, underscoring an imbalance between water use and value added.18
Municipal and industrial demand
Rapid urbanization and population growth are driving up municipal demand:
Industrial and energy - sector demand (cooling, refining, power generation) is also significant, particularly in hydrocarbon - dependent economies where water is required both directly and indirectly (e.g., for energy production and petrochemical industries). The water - energy nexus is acute: more desalination means more energy demand, and more thermal power generation in turn may require additional cooling water.21
The widening gap between supply and demand
The combination of limited and highly variable natural supply, skyrocketing demand, and climate change has pushed much of the Middle East into chronic structural deficits:
MENA holds less than 2% of global renewable water, but demand growth - in both agriculture and cities - has remained strong due to demographics, rising living standards, and food security concerns.22
Projections suggest that, absent major changes in efficiency and reuse, many countries could fall below 200 m³ per capita per year by 2050, a level incompatible with conventional economic and social stability.23
Desalination and wastewater reuse are closing part of the gap, but not fast enough to fully offset over - abstraction of groundwater and climate stress. Non - renewable fossil aquifers, especially in the Arabian Peninsula and parts of North Africa, are being mined at rates far exceeding recharge, effectively “liquidating” natural capital to sustain current demand.24
Strategic implications for policy and business
From a strategic and competitive intelligence perspective - central to Webintelligency’s advisory focus - the water balance in the Middle East in recent years can be summarized in three key points:
1. Scarcity is structural, not cyclical. With 18 of 22 Arab states already below 1,000 m³ per capita per year and climate models pointing to further declines, water constraints are now a permanent feature of the regional risk landscape, not a temporary shock.25
2. Non - conventional water is shifting from “backup” to “backbone”. Desalination and reuse - already supplying tens of billions of cubic meters per year, with MENA holding roughly 39% of global desalination capacity - are no longer marginal add-ons but core components of national water portfolios.26
3. Demand management is as important as new supply. Given that agriculture still consumes about 80–85% of water yet contributes a much smaller share of GDP, and irrigation efficiency gaps can exceed a factor of two or three, efficiency gains, crop shifts, and revised subsidy regimes are indispensable if the region is to avoid severe economic and social disruption.27
For governments, investors, and companies operating in or with the Middle East, water dynamics are now a central ESG and strategic variable. Any long - term planning - whether in energy, agribusiness, real estate, or industry - must start from a realistic understanding of the tight water budget, rising competition between sectors, and the fast - evolving landscape of desalination, reuse, and cross - border water politics.
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Webintelligency is a Strategic Consulting & Competitive Research Services Vendor. We specialize in delivering valid and current market reviews and research reports. For more information contact us at info@webintelligency.com and visit our website at www.webintelligency.com
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